Divisions and continuities of the transition: Comparative analysis of the electoral participation in the municipalities of the Special Transitory Circumscriptions of Peace (Plebiscite 2016 – legislative 2018)

The purpose of the study is to analyse the way in which electoral behaviour is configured and articulated in the 16 (failed) Circumscriptions of Peace. That is, what is voter’s attitude in these areas in a scenario of transition?

From this perspective, bearing in mind the 2014 elections, the 2016 plebiscite, and the 2018 elections, the study analyses the voters’ consistency in their selection of options, based on the idea that war-to-peace transition processes are not linear but dialectic, and subject to constant ruptures and continuities.

To do so, we will use a series of ecological regression models to estimate individual behaviours by reviewing the results from each voting table in around 170 municipalities.